Baseball Preview Part 3: Predictions

My track record as a baseball prognosticator is not good, so it may be embarrassing for me to look back on this post at the end of the 2011 season. Nevertheless, here's how I see things unfolding this year...

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL East

Braves, 90 - 72
Phillies, 89-73
Marlins, 84-78
Nationals, 75-87
Mets, 70 -92

With all the talk of the Phillies bringing the “best starting rotation in the history of baseball" into the 2011 season, it’s easy to overlook the serious age this team has on it. Age has already come into play for Forrest Gump's ballclub as second baseman Chase Utley, 32, will be out for an as-yet-unknown period of time due to nagging knee problems. In fact, with youngster Dominic Brown going down with a broken hand after he was slated to replace the departed Jayson Werth, the only player under 30 in the projected opening day lineup for the Phillies is outfielder Ben Francisco. The Atlanta Braves, on the other hand, are loaded with young and talented players like power hitting outfielder Jason Heyward (.277/.393/.456, 8 HR, 4.4 WAR in 2010), tough-as-nails catcher Brian McCann (.289/.360/.489, 18.1 WAR over six seasons in the bigs), and unproven but highly touted first baseman Freddie Freeman. The Bravos balance the youth nicely with solid veteran players, not only Chipper Jones, who may or may not make it through the season at 39, but also shortstop Alex Gonzalez, who smacked 16 bombs last year, and newly acquired slugger Dan Uggla at second base. The Phillies have the better rotation, no doubt, but the Braves have a pretty good starting staff as well, with Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 2010), Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), and youngster Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). I just think the Braves are the better, younger team, at least in the regular season. But the Phillies will get into the playoffs as the wild card and can obviously do some post-season damage with their vaunted pitching staff.

NL Central

Brewers, 84-78
Reds, 83-79
Astros, 81-81

Cards 79-83
Cubs, 76-86
Pirates, 62-100

One of the paradoxes of the 2011 season will be that, while the NL Central looks to be the weakest division in baseball, the top team in the division - which for my money is the Milwaukee Brewers - will quite possibly be the most exciting team to watch. Over the past few seasons, it has not been a question of whether the Brewers could mash and score runs but rather a question of whether they could pitch and play defense. They dealt in the offseason for Shaun Marcum (13-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP with the Jays in 2010) and former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (10-14, 4.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP with the Royals). The two of them will join Yovani Gallardo (14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) and seasoned veteran Randy Wolf (13-12, 4.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). Greinke has suffered a broken rib this spring, the result of being a selfish ass clown with no common sense, but he should be back before May, and provided the injury doesn’t continue to cause him problems, the Brewers will now have solid 1 through 4 starters. The bullpen will feature closer John Axford along with Latroy Hawkins, Kameron Loe, and Zack Braddock, all solid arms. Still, the strength of this team is definitely its lineup, which boasts one of the most underrated players in the game in Rickie Weeks (.269/.366/.464 in 2010, including 29 HR and 11 SB). And don’t forget the two big boppers on the team, Ryan Braun (nice Jewish boy) and Prince Fielder. The Reds are likely to regress in 2011, in my opinion, and The Brewers are my sleeper pick to represent the NL in the World Series. It would be a nice feather in new manager Ron Roenicke’s cap. He's a good man and I'm rooting for him this year...

NL West

Rockies, 90-72

Giants, 88-74

San Diego, 78-84
Arizona, 70-92

Dodgers, 69-93

I’m one of those baseball fans who believe that the 2010 San Francisco Giants were a fluke, much like the 2006 Cardinals and the 2002 Angels. They played very mediocre ball for much of the summer but then got hot at the right time and rode Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez all the way to the Promised Land. They still have the good pitching, including eccentiric closer Brian Wilson, but what else do they have? Answer: A lot of guys who are either past their prime or stiffs, if not both. Andres Torres? An old stiff. Freddie Sanchez? Old. Aubrey Huff? Old. Cody Ross? A replacement-level player who happened to get hot in the playoffs. Pat Burrell? Old. Miguel Tejada? Old. Pablo Sandoval? A fat stiff with no range... No, the Giants aren’t gonna repeat. I like the Rockies to win the division this year. The middle of their lineup, with Carlos Gonzalez (.336/.376/.598 in 2010), Troy Tulowitzki (.315/.381/.568), Ian Stewart (.256/.338/.443) and Todd Helton (.256/.362/.367) will score tons of runs at Coors Field. The Rocks had a lot of problems playing on the road last year and will need to pick it up in other people’s parks if they are to win the division this season. After Ubaldo Jimenez at the top of their rotation, the starting pitching is very average, and the bullpen can be erratic with Rafael Betancourt setting up for Huston Street. But I think the bats will make up for it, and I like any team managed by Jim Tracy, one of the sharpest guys in the game. 2011 feels like the Rockies' year, especially when you consider how weak the rest of their division will be. And once you start playing games at Coors Field in October, the elements will come into play and anything can happen.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East

Red Sox, 100-62

Yankees, 90-72

Rays, 86-76

Orioles, 81-81

Blue Jays, 78-84

As much as it pains me to admit this, the Boston Red Sox are currently the class of baseball, hands down. Nobody even comes close. The Yankees are old. The Phillies are old. And no other potential contender can match what the BoSox will be bringing to the table in 2011. The fan in me hates GM Theo Epstein, a self-satisfied cocksucker who went to Harvard and is living a dream life that fills me with seething jealousy. But the side of me that’s a more objective observer of the game admires the guy. Sometimes you have to swallow hard and tip your cap. The organization is run with supreme intelligence, they make smart acquisitions, sell out every game at Fenway, and reward the rabid loyalty of their drunken fanbase by spending tons of money in the free agent market. I envy Red Sox Nation almost as much as I hate those fuckers… Let’s start with their starting pitching. While not quite as regal as that of the Phillies, the Red Sox will have an outstanding rotation in 2011, arguably the second best in baseball, though the Oakland A's and Los Angeles Angels may have something to say about this. Lefty Jon Lester has emerged as the ace of the staff. He's a big boy at 6’4 240 lbs and an absolute bulldog of a competitor. He has won at least 15 games in each of the past three seasons and is both a strike thrower and an innings eater, pitching in more than 200 innings in each of the last three seasons. John Lackey will be the number 2 starter after having what many consider to have been a disappointing first season with Boston in 2010 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). He’s no youngster anymore, but like Lester he’s a fierce competitor who still has one of the nastiest curve balls in the game. Some of the criticism he’s received might be colored by the huge free agent contract he signed, but last year was definitely not Lackey-like and I look for the big Texan to bounce back this season. I watched him for eight years with the Angels and the guy’s just too good to dismiss. Clay Buchholz, the number 3, had an outstanding 2010, going 17-7 with an ERA of 2.33. He’s still only 26 and I have no doubt that the guy’s gonna be a big star. Rounding out the rotation are Josh Beckett, who was hampered by injuries in 2010 but can still be a very effective number 4 if he stays healthy, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who’s been disappointing thus far but could be a sleeping tiger preparing to wake up at any moment. …The three main arms in the bullpen for the Sox are likely to be newly-acquired fat man Bobby Jenks, who looks to be the 7th inning guy, Daniel Bard, a closer in waiting who’ll mostly work as a setup man, and trashy head case Jonathan Papelbon, the closer for now. Bard throws gas and could take over the closer’s role if Paps falters. And since Paps is in his walk year, it wouldn’t be a great shock if he gets dealt before the deadline. I get the impression he’s worn out his welcome in Boston. The only thing preventing the FO from dealing him, I think, is that they would not want the team to have face him in the playoffs or World Series. So they may just end up taking the draft picks, we’ll see. …What really puts Boston over the top this year is that they’ve taken an already imposing lineup and added two of the best players in the game, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.298/.393/.511, 31 HR , 101 RBI, 6.3 WAR in 2010) and Carl Crawford (.307/.356/.495, 19 HR, 47 SB, 4.8 WAR). Keep in mind that Gonzalez put his huge numbers up in cavernous Petco Park, and he's got outstanding opposite field pop, so you can just imagine what the dude will do the the Green Monster. Along with providing two more great left handed bats to the lineup, Gonzalez and Crawford both play stellar defense. ...The Sox will have excellent bench depth as well and will platoon Mike Cameron against lefties and JD Drew against righties. And let’s not forget the likes of Youkilis, Ellsbury, Pedroia and Big Papi, if he’s still got anything left in the tank. …The Red Sox will be scary good in 2011. The only reason they won’t win more than 100 games is that they play in the toughest division in baseball.

AL Central

White Sox, 94-68
Tigers, 92-70

Twins, 87-75

Royals, 77-85
Indians, 70-92

The American League Wild Card will come out of the Central Division this year, where the White Sox will win the division and the Tigers will edge out the Yankees for the last playoff spot. The Sox have a nicely balanced team on both sides of the ball. One guy who flew under the radar for them last year was speedy left fielder Juan Pierre, who had a .339 OBP, stole 68 bases, and scored 98 runs from the top of the order. But it’s the addition of Adam Dunn’s left handed thunder that will make the Sox much better this year. His insertion into the middle of the lineup means that Paul Konerko (.312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 111 RBI) will see more pitches to hit. Carlos Quentin will also be a fixture in the heart of the club’s order after hitting 26 HR and 87 RBI in 2010…. The White Sox’s pitching is admittedly a question mark, but if things go right for the team their starters keep the club in games at the very least. Mark Buehurle is a gamer who I’d take on my team any day of the week. He is the projected number 1 for the Sox this season. He’s never put up eye popping numbers, but he’s thrown 200+ innings every year for the past 10 years and he’s a very tough competitor. One hopes that at age 32 his arm doesn’t already have too much wear and tear on it. Jake Peavy is already dealing with problems in his shoulder before the team has even broken camp. He is expected to miss a few starts but should be the number 2 starter if the shoulder problems don’t derail him. If the shoulder turns out to be serious, the White Sox will be in big trouble and may need to try and deal for another arm. But if Peavy can recapture the form he had when he was with the Padres, he has the potential to eventually take the number 1 spot in the rotation. Gavin Floyd is a serviceable number 3, but he’s had a few down years after going 17-8 in 2008. The bottom end of the rotation will be John Danks and Edwin Jackson. …With Bobby Jenks gone to the Red Sox, Matt Thorton, who some believe to be the best lefthanded reliever in the game, steps into the closer’s role. The team will also have flame throwers Chris Sale and Sergio Santos coming out of the pen. …The White Sox are undoubtedly a team with some flaws, but Ozzie Guillen gets his guys to play hard and I see them as being a little better than the Tigers this year. But the Tigers will keep it close with their pitching. Justin Verlander is the obvious ace of the staff, followed by Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny and Phil Coke. The offseason acquisition of Joaquin Benoit (1.34 ERA, 0.68 WHIP over 60 IP with the Rays in 2010) makes the Tigers bullpen much stronger, but the team was dealt a setback when hard throwing Joel Zumaya recently went back on the DL with elbow soreness. Still, the team will have the solid Jose Valverde closing out games, and the Tigers will arguably have the best bullpen in baseball if Zumaya can get healthy and return to form. …The Tigers also improved themselves offensively by signing Victor Martinez during the offseason. His career offensive numbers are impressive (.300/.369/.493) and he joins a lineup that also includes the speedy and talented Austin Jackson (.293/.345/.400, 27 SB in 2010) and Miguel Cabrera, who, in spite of his off-the-field turmoil, is probably the most feared slugger in the American League. Magglio Ordonez will also be back in 2011. He’s definitely on the down side of his career at 37, but he still put up nice numbers last year (.303/.378/.474), and every contending team needs a few wily veterans to bring experience and perspective into the clubhouse.

AL West

A's, 89-73
Rangers, 87-75
Angels, 83-79

Mariners, 70-92

The Oakland A’s quietly made themselves into a much better team during the offseason, adding relievers Grant Balfour (who has one of the more unfortunate names for a pitcher) and Brian Fuentes, as well as outfielders Josh Willingham and David DeJesus, and DH Hideki Matsui. The team also added Rich Harden, who returns to the A’s after spells with the Cubs and Rangers, but he is currently injured and his role on the team is unclear at this point. None of the position players on the 2011 A’s will make you say wow, but the team overall is well balanced and should score more runs in 2011. The club’s real strength – and the reason I think they’ll beat out the Texas Rangers in the AL West – is their pitching, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen. Trevor Cahill, the ace of the staff, has phenomenal stuff and is on the cusp of becoming a superstar. Last year, in only his second season in the bigs, he went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Gio Gonzalez, the projected number 2 starter, posted a record of 15-9, with a 3.23 ERA. Brett Anderson, the number 3 guy in the rotation, went 7-6 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Overwrought douchebag Dallas Braden threw a perfect game last year but didn’t have a great overall record (11-14, 3.50 ERA). Still, he’s a very tough competitor and will keep the ballclub in games. Brandon McCarthy is projected to be the fifth starter in the rotation after not playing in the majors in 2010. In 2009, he posted a 7-4 record and a 4.62 ERA with the Texas Rangers. Braden and McCarthy, both 27 years old, are the two oldest guys in the A's rotation. The team’s bullpen is up there with Detroit’s as one of the best relief corps in the game. Harden could be used as a reliever, and along with Fuentes and Balfour the club has solid arms in Craig Breslow and Brad Ziegler, and they will probably use Andrew Bailey to close games after he saved 25 last year with a 1.47 ERA and a 0.959 WHIP. …If you compare the Oakland A’s and the Texas Rangers on paper, the Rangers have what seems to be the sexier team with Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre. But I think they are making a huge mistake if they decide to use Neftali Feliz as a starter. Why would you take a lock-down closer – a guy who can close out games for you for years to come – and turn him into a starter? The answer is that they don’t feel they have enough starting pitching after failing to land Cliff Lee in the offseason. I would tend to agree. Lefty C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 2010) is solid and could emerge as a bona fide ace. Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has scattered flashes of electricity but is inconsistent. Tommy Hunter’s 13-4 record was quite a bit better than he pitched last year, so I wouldn’t expect the same results this year. And then the trouble really starts. Derek Holland is currently penciled in as the number 4 after going 11-17 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over two seasons with the Rangers. The number 5 right now figures to be Matt Harrison, who could be good if he pans out, but his 5.39 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over three seasons with the Rangers does not inspire much confidence. ...The way I see it, the Rangers are a team that will score a lot of runs, just as they always do, but they will also give up a lot of runs. And I think the July-August-September heat in Arlington is probably all the more wearying when your pitching staff can't at least keep things close. It’ll come down to the wire, but I like the A’s to win the West this year.

It goes without saying that, because MLB’s regular season is a 162-game grind with injuries affecting each club in ways that can’t be predicted in advance, it’s a little silly to try and predict who’ll be playing in October when we’re not even out of March yet. It’s silly, but it’s fun, so here goes…

In the National League, the Braves will play the Brewers and the Rockies will play the Phillies. Although the Braves arguably have a better staff as a whole than the Brew Crew, Milwaukee will outslug Atlanta and they will be able to use a hungry Zack Greinke two times in the series. I like the Brewers in five… Age will catch up with the Phillies and Coors field will neutralize their pitching advantage over the Rockies. Look for CarGo and Tulow to come up huge and lead the Rocks to the NLCS... The Rocks and Brewers will be an exciting series. The Brewers have the better lineup and a better overall pitching staff, including a better bullpen. The Brewers will win the pennant in seven games…

In the American league playoffs, the Red Sox will play the Tigers and the White Sox will play the A’s. The Red Sox are just too talented for the Tigers and will win their series in a four-game sweep. The A’s and White Sox will be close, but the A’s pitching will be just a little more than the White Sox can handle. A’s in seven. The Red Sox will defeat the A’s for the AL pennant but the A’s will put up a good fight. Red Sox in six. Even though the A's will lose, I expect Trevor Cahill to become this year's version of Cliff Lee and King Felix...

It’ll be the Red Sox and the Brewers in the World Series with the Red Sox winning in five.

But the World Series is a long way away. The season starts on Thursday and I can’t wait. Play ball already!