talking baseball with the prince of new york

There are many mornings when the only incentive I have to get out of bed is the knowledge that the bank will foreclose on my house if I don't show up for work. Over the past few months, though, Paul Lebowitz, aka the Prince of New York, has made my morning grind much more pleasant. Paul writes what is by far the best baseball blog I've come across on the internet. Along with his blog, Paul prepares an excellent annual baseball guide and is a frequent guest on Sal Cardiselo's Sports Fan Buzz, where his no-nonsense New York accent adds force and conviction to his ruthless baseball expertise. But don't mistake Paul for a one dimensional man. In addition to his comprehensive baseball analysis, he's a novelist, a poet, and a commentator on culture at large. If you're as big a baseball junkie as I am, or even if you just enjoy great writing and thoughtful people, the Prince of New York is a guy to keep on your radar. He was nice enough to answer some of my questions about the Mets and Angels...

There's a common perception in the media that the Mets have become an organization prone to disaster. I know you don't buy this. What did you see from the Mets in 2010 that would give you hope for the future? What do you think they have to do to be a legitimate playoff contender in 2011?

The Mets mishaps have been more pronounced, so the perception of them bing a disaster stems from the back-to-back “collapses”. In 2007, they did collapse. In 2008, they were functioning without a closer and got beat because of it. The Mets were said to have no farm system to speak of, but look at them now----they’re loaded with prospects.

I’m a believer in the sum of the parts being greater than the individual. Look at the downfall of the Yankees from the championship years through 2009; they never had any player who led the league in homers or RBI; they were a team; then Steinbrenner started collecting as many glossy names as he could, they weren’t a unit and they played like it at crunch time. For the Mets to be a contender in 2011, they have to bolster the pitching staff from top to bottom; not necessarily with a Cliff Lee, but with a Bronson Arroyo-type. And they need some reliable bullpen arms. The offense should be there if Bay and Beltran are anywhere close to what they need and they get a second baseman who’s not an automatic out.

What is your assessment of the job Omar Minaya has done as the GM? How much of the blame for the failures of the last four seasons can reasonably be placed on his shoulders? Do you think he will he survive as GM for the remaining year on his contract?

Omar Minaya had a philosophy of building a team that was based on the bullpen being very deep and a high-powered offense. The one thing that cost the Mets in 2006 and 2007 was losing Duaner Sanchez. Aaron Heilman was fine as the seventh ining guy; but as the eighth inning guy, he was a nightmare. They’re also top-heavy with veteran stars and when a team is built that way, they don’t have the reinforcements if the stars get hurt. Naturally what happened in 2009 was absurd, but the Red Sox and Phillies have experienced similar injuries in 2010 and continued winning in spite of them. Omar’s strengths are in scouting; he has trouble with the English language and when he has to do damage control or fire someone, he can’t do it and sounds foolish. He’ll be better off as an advisor than the main man.

Who would you like to see replace Jerry Manuel as manager? What do you think the odds are that Joe Torre will make a triumphant return to the Mets?

I’m starting to like the idea of Wally Backman as manager. He’s a Met; he’d get into people’s faces; and the team would be aggressive and forced to adhere to fundamentals.

Torre’s not coming back to the Mets----he doesn’t need the aggravation and they won’t want to pay him.

How much will the remaining money left on the contracts for Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, and Oliver Perez limit the moves the Mets can make in the offseason? Do you think the club will finally cut ties with Ollie, even if it means eating the $12 million he's still owed?

They’ll be able to get rid of Castillo for a similar contract or attached to another player they want to trade who’s more in demand. Perez is going nowhere in a trade; they're going to have to eat the money to get him out of here. Presumably, they could find a taker for Beltran, but they might want to keep him and hope he stay healthy and hits in his walk year.

I hear grumbling from a small but growing contingent of Met fans that the organization needs to trade either David Wright or Jose Reyes. Do you think a case can be made for breaking up the core? If so, who would you be more inclined to trade of the two players? For me, it would have to be Reyes. I look at his seven or so years with the Mets and I see a periodically explosive and game changing player, but also a guy who's never been able to stay healthy. Is it me or is he pretty brittle for a player who's not even 30 yet?

Reyes will also be looking to cash in either with the Mets or another club. I’d gauge the market for Wright and Reyes, but would have to be bowled over to trade one or both.

I know it's impossible to foresee how a player will come back from a serious head injury, but assuming Jason Bay makes a full recovery, do you think he will be able to produce in a way comparable to what he did in Boston and Pittsburgh? How much of his struggles during the first year of his contract can be explained by the added pressures and difficulties involved in playing in New York?

I think Bay will come back and be a 20-25 homer man; it was a similar transition to NY for Beltran and he was fine after that first rough year. Bay’s performed everywhere he’s been and his poor year wasn’t due to a lack of hustle. New York takes some getting used to. He’ll be fine.

Through all their listless play during the second half of the season, the one bright spot for the Mets seems to have been the starting pitching. If Henry Mejia turns out to be as good as advertised, the starting rotation for 2011 - Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Niese, RA Dickey and Henry Mejia - could be very good. I don't think the Mets need to go out and spend a lot of money on another starter during this off season, do you?

The Mets do need to get at least one and possibly two starters. Even if Santana is back by say May, they need to go into the season with an established arm from whom they’re going to get a predictable performance.

What is your assessment of how the Mets bullpen performed in 2010? Do you think Francciso Rodriguez will be closing games for the Mets in 2011?

The bullpen has been mostly down this season. Hisanori Takahashi has been a revelation. Much of the struggles could be due to the haphazard use by manager Manuel; they need more organization out there and a couple of reliable arms who can get strikeouts. Grant Balfour is a free agent; Scot Shields will be available and there are always valuable finds in the bargain bin.

I honestly don’t know what’s going to happen with K-Rod; they’re trying to un-guarantee the contract and it’s unheard of, but given the latest transgression of contacting his girlfriend, the Mets have a case. I’m iffy on whether K-Rod will be closing for them.

With Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Joel Pinero, the Angels will have four very solid starters in 2011. But then there's Scott Kazmir in the number five spot. He has been ineffective and looks lost out on the mound. What do you think the problem is for him? Is he 'done' at age 26, and would it be possible for the Angels to move him given his bad contract?

Scott Kazmir needs to be a reliever. He has neither the stamina nor the size to be a starter long-term. For all the work they get from him, he’s little more than a 4th starter. When his stuff is working, he gets hurt; and when his stuff isn’t working, he gets shelled; as much ridicule as the Mets and Rick Peterson took for their assessment of him taking a long time to make it to the big leagues; having a bit of an attitude problem; and that he was unlikely to have the stamina to make it as a starter, he was right. The trade for Victor Zambrano was atrocious, but that doesn’t mean it was a mistake to trade Kazmir because the return wasn't any good. He needs to be a closer. They can trade him if they want to; someone would take him in exchange for a similar contract; I always joke that the Mets should try to get him back, but if you look at it and some of their contracts they’d like to get rid of, it’s not that bad an idea.

Beyond the starting pitching, I see some problems for the Angels going forward. I think the team may be in for a prolonged rebuilding period. Let's look at the infield for starters. Assuming Kendry Morales is the same player after he's recovered from his leg fracture, he will provide a much needed boost both offensively and defensively at first base. But Howie Kendrick at second, Alberto Callaspo at third, Erick Aybar at short, and Ceasar Itzturus as a utility guy...it's tough for me as an Angels fan to get too excited about these guys. Aybar and Kendrick have both been touted as players with great potential, but so far they've not really lived up to the billing. Do you agree? What is your impression of the presumed starting infield for the Halos in 2011? It seems like the team would have to make a trade if they wanted to significantly improve their infield.

The Angels are going to get a bat and they’ve long been enamored of Paul Konerko. They’re also said to be the frontrunners for Carl Crawford. I dunno about “frontrunner”, but he’s their type of player and they’ll be in there trying to get him. I don’t put much stock in the idea that a team has to have a power bat at the corner positions based on little more than history. A team is the sum of its parts. If the Angels improve with a Konerko and Crawford, they can carry the infield you listed.

What do you think the Angels can or should do to upgrade their outfield for the 2011 season and beyond? The club did the right thing, in my opinion, in moving Torii Hunter to right field in order to at least see what they have in the lightning-fast Peter Bourjos in center field. But Bourjos has not shown that he can hit major league pitching yet, and Bobby Abreu is starting to decline. There's been a lot of talk among Angels fans about signing Carl Crawford. Do you think this would make sense? Personally, I'd rather see the organization go with a youth movement and give guys like Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo chances to win spots with the big boys, even if it means a few sub-par seasons while they gain experience.

A team like the Angels is willing to give their young players a chance to play, but they’re going to go all out to try and win next year after the way this season came undone. The look like they believe in Bourjos and will give him every opportunity to play his way into hitting. Look at Brandon Wood---they’re only just now about ready to give up on him after all those years of failure.Abreu’s signed to a reasonable deal, but they’ll probably keep him around. The one guy who’s going to be gone is Juan Rivera. And Matsui won’t be back.

The Angels bullpen was inconsistent in 2010. How confident can Angels fans be that Fernando Rodney can be an effective closer in 2011. I do not feel good when he comes into a game. He seems to have difficulty with his command with runners on base, and he gets easily rattled. If he continues to struggle, do you think Mike Scioscia would give hard throwing youngsters like Kevin Jepsen or Jordan Walden a chance to close games?

Rodney’s a gutty closer; he can get wild and give up a homer here and there, but the Angels shield their closer very well with a deep set-up corps. All those years that K-Rod was accumulating saves, it was Scot Shields doing the heavy lifting for K-Rod to get the glory. We saw what happened when it was crunch time in the playoffs and K-Rod blew all those games. Shields was far more valuable than K-Rod. The Angels always build a good bullpen

I look at the Texas Rangers right now and I see a team that just flat out has more talent than the Angels. What's worse for Angels fans is that so much of the Rangers' talent is young. Do you think they are likely to dominate the American League West for the next few years?

The Rangers are loaded with talent thanks to that trade they made with the Braves sending them Mark Teixeira. That was a masterpiece. Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison , Elvis Andrus and Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a steal. They’ve also drafted well. With the stabilization of ownership, the Rangers and Angels should be fighting it out for the division and both will be in Wild Card play as the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays transition.

If you were the Angels' GM, what would be your biggest priority in the offseason in terms of improving the club for the 2011 season and beyond?

The Angels need a bat and they always address their needs. Crawford and Konerko are the players I think they’ll add.